6 Sept · 18:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1377
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sawicki
GS
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1380
FormWLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Adach stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Sawicki
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H16-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.