6 Sept · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1431
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1467
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.