6 Sept · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1388
FormLLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Trela
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1314
FormWLLLW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H11-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-8)