6 Sept · 23:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1461
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1477
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H10-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.