7 Sept · 00:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1490
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Marud
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1477
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Marud
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.07· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.