7 Sept · 01:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1447
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Baron
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1445
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Baron goes over total as favourite 66% (70)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.