7 Sept · 03:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1451
FormLWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1503
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H13-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-2)