7 Sept · 03:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1563
FormWWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Oracz
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1503
FormWWWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H15-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-4)