7 Sept · 06:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1338
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1350
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H10-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.