7 Sept · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1433
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wolny
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1468
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Wolny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H13-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.