7 Sept · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1564
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1581
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Skotniczny🌟Skotniczny covers set handicap as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.