7 Sept · 09:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1293
FormLLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1351
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)