7 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YF
🇵🇱Yurij Fomin
ELO 1449
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fomin
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1445
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H31-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.