7 Sept · 16:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1562
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sobel
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1516
FormWLWWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H13-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-8)