7 Sept · 15:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YF
🇵🇱Yurij Fomin
ELO 1431
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fomin
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1428
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H31-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.