7 Sept · 20:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🇵🇱Dariusz Maszczynski
ELO 1266
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Staniczek
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1325
FormLWLLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Staniczek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H28-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-6)