7 Sept · 19:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1316
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nosiadek
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nosiadek
ELO 1323
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Nosiadek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.