8 Sept · 00:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1488
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Marud
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1488
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Marud
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+0
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.