9 Sept · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1366
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ostachowski
PO
🇵🇱Piotr Ostachowski
ELO 1385
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Ostachowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.