10 Sept · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1350
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ostachowski
PO
🇵🇱Piotr Ostachowski
ELO 1357
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Ostachowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 37% · 2.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.