11 Sept · 06:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1679
FormWLLLL
69%Win chancemodel fair 1.45Tkaczyk
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1498
FormLLLLW
69%
31%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 65% (94)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 69% · 1.45vsMarket 64% · 1.57· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 52%Total ~78 pts
3-1
27%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
12%
2-3
11%
Elo Gap+181
H2H62-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+181)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (62-28)