11 Sept · 08:25 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1559
FormLLWWW
68%Win chancemodel fair 1.47Lebek
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1389
FormLLLWW
68%
32%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 68% · 1.47vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~77 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+170
H2H48-33
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+170)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (48-33)