11 Sept · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1481
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mleczko
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1493
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulkowski🌟Mleczko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (24)
Fair odds · Mleczko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.