11 Sept · 09:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1395
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nowak
RK
🇵🇱Rafal Komandzik
ELO 1386
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Nowak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 17% (12)
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.