11 Sept · 21:30 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalski
ELO 1238
FormLLLLL
75%Win chancemodel fair 1.33Orszulik
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1483
FormWLLLW
25%
75%
Fair odds · Orszulik
Model 75% · 1.33vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 59%Total ~76 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
9%
Elo Gap+245
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+245)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)