12 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1551
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Witczak
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1552
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H14-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.