13 Sept · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1460
FormWLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Oracz
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1533
FormWLLLL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H24-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-4)