13 Sept · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1429
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Piotrowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1386
FormWWWLW
55%
45%
🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H10-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-2)