13 Sept · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1339
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Poloszczanski
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1315
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Poloszczanski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.