13 Sept · 08:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇵🇱Piotr Maruszak
ELO 1430
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Maruszak
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1422
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Maruszak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.