13 Sept · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1339
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Poloszczanski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1310
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Poloszczanski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H32-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.