13 Sept · 07:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1374
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sinicki
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1310
FormWWLLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Sinicki
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H12-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-8)