13 Sept · 07:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇵🇱Piotr Maruszak
ELO 1430
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Maruszak
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1429
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Maruszak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H5-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.