13 Sept · 06:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1310
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wisniewski
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1278
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H13-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.