13 Sept · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1422
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dabrowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1386
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H20-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.