13 Sept · 14:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1369
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1379
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H6-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.