13 Sept · 14:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AC
🇵🇱Aleksander Cichocki
ELO 1634
FormWWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Cichocki
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1571
FormLWWWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Cichocki
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)