13 Sept · 14:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1533
FormWLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Oracz
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1460
FormWLLLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H24-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-4)