13 Sept · 23:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1518
FormLLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Polok
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1578
FormWWLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Polok
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 64% · 1.57· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H1-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)