13 Sept · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1278
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kotwica
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1290
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Kotwica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (17)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.