13 Sept · 22:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1562
FormWWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1562
FormWWWWW
50%
50%
🌟Marud stays under total as favourite 75% (12)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+0
H2H14-70
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.