14 Sept · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1682
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jarocki
KG
🇵🇱Kacper Glazowski
ELO 1663
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H19-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.