14 Sept · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1455
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Czerwinski
BC
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1514
FormWLWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Czerwinski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H8-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-0)