14 Sept · 05:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1682
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jarocki
MM
🇵🇱Michal Malachowski
ELO 1647
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H8-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.