14 Sept · 05:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1514
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jadach
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1567
FormWLWWW
44%
56%
🌟Ruszkiewicz goes over total as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H16-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-1)