14 Sept · 10:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FK
🇵🇱Frantisek Krcil
ELO 1512
FormLLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Czerwinski
BC
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1514
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Czerwinski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 26% · 3.78· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H12-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.