14 Sept · 09:30 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1686
FormLWWWW
76%Win chancemodel fair 1.32Tkaczyk
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1425
FormLLLLW
76%
24%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 65% (94)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 76% · 1.32vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 60%Total ~73 pts
3-0
33%
3-1
28%
3-2
16%
2-3
10%
1-3
9%
Elo Gap+261
H2H14-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+261)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-8)