14 Sept · 13:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1646
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kapik
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1634
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H21-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.