14 Sept · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1387
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1416
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
🌟Baron goes over total as favourite 66% (70)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H8-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.