14 Sept · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1682
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jarocki
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1646
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🌟Kapik covers set handicap as underdog 68% (192)
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H69-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.